assume that the last worker a firm hired produces 60

#Assume that the last worker a firm hired produces 60 update#

The slump in demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertainty about the timing of a recovery, heightened by the widespread disruption in global markets, make many companies fear that they will not be able to generate the necessary cash flow to ensure normal business operations. In these first months of 2021, a climate of uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was widespread, before the summer economic recovery resulting from the recent recorded decline in the rate of infections.

The two scenarios, set out at the end of 2019, are based on the GDP estimates published in the Italian government’s Economic and Financial Document (DEF 2020): scenario A assumes a fall in real GDP of 8% in 2020 and a partial recovery of 4.7% in 2021, while scenario B assumes a GDP fall of 10.6% in 2020, with 2.3% recovery in 2021.Įmployment estimates rose slightly between April and June 2021: the employment rate of those aged 15-64 was 56.6%, while the unemployment and inactivity rates rose to 10.7%. The model is based on two possible scenarios according to whether the economy expands or contracts: under scenario A (baseline scenario), in the 5-year period 2020-2024, economic growth could generate an increase of 179 000 people in work compared to 2019, with highly uneven distribution across the various sectors under scenario B (adverse scenario), the number of people in work would fall by about 556 000 people by the end of the 5-year period.

#Assume that the last worker a firm hired produces 60 update#

This is illustrated by the results of the latest update (July 2020) of the employment needs forecasting model developed under the Excelsior Information System by Unioncamere. This figure – probably an underestimate – coupled with the expected increases (or decreases) in employment based on possible annual GDP trends, will result in a total employment need of between 1.9 and 2.7 million workers. The population of foreign nationals stands at around 5 035 000 and represents 8.5% of the entire population living in Italy.īetween 20, the Italian economic system will have to replace more than 2.5 million people currently in work, as they reach retirement age or for other reasons. Population density is highest in the following regions: Lombardy, Lazio, Veneto and Liguria, with a significant fall compared to 2019 (-384 000). The Italian population is declining significantly, with a negative natural balance, mitigated mostly by the migratory flows of recent years.Īs at 1 January 2021, the Italian population stood at 59 258 000. The Italian labour market differs widely between the regions, with industrial activity mostly concentrated in the north, with the southern regions dedicated mainly to agriculture and tourism.